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.The START arms control process is linked to missile defence and the threatfrom WMD-armed rogue states, the ABM treaty, modernisation and consolida-tion of nuclear forces, Russian suspicion of American missile defence and stra-tegic superiority motives.New or modified nuclear weapons are linked to WMD-armed rogue states,nuclear weapons expertise, nuclear testing, counter-proliferation war-fightingdoctrine, a capabilities-based approach to deterrence by denial, and nuclear non-proliferation.Dependency on nuclear weapons in strategic planning is linked to conven-tional strategic capabilities, missile defences, the blocked START process,modernisation of nuclear forces, a shift to deterrence by denial vis-à-vis roguestates, and the state of the nuclear weapons production complex.The consolidation of nuclear forces is linked to strategic force modernisation,new targeting infrastructure, new or modified nuclear weapons, missiledefences, conventional strategic capabilities, and the START process, PNIs andMoscow Treaty.Finally, revitalising the nuclear weapons production complex is linked tonuclear weapons expertise, nuclear testing, new nuclear weapons, a nuclearhedge and modernisation of nuclear forces.This chapter has identified and examined a number of trends that emergefrom the analysis of nuclear weapons policy in the previous three chapters.Itargues that the key decisions and trends identified and examined represent theevolution of nuclear weapons policy since the end of the Cold War.A number ofcompeting ideas, beliefs, meanings and understandings emerge from analysis ofthese decisions, trends and the debates.The next chapter examines the substanceof these competing ideas and their effect on the evolution of nuclear weaponspolicy. 7 The influence of ideas on nuclearweapons policyAnalysis of nuclear weapons policy tends to draw on realist theory in whichnational security and survival are the first and foremost concern of all states inan international system of relentless security competition.1 States constantlystruggle for power because with it comes influence and a greater capacity toensure national security and state survival in an uncertain and anarchic inter-national environment.The struggle for power and security inevitably results inconflictual relations and power is generally defined in terms of the material,particularly military, capabilities of a state relative to the capabilities of otherstates and the political power to coerce and control other states.2 It is thereforeconsidered logical and rational for states to maximise their military and politicalpower vis-à-vis their competitors because it is in their national interest to do soif they want to survive.Failure to act rationally in an anarchic internationalsystem could undermine the very survival of the state.3Realist theory, with its focus on states, material capabilities and securitydefined in military terms, therefore explains and in fact prescribes the accumula-tion of military power as a necessary and rational activity to protect the statefrom the many, varied and inevitable confrontations it will have with otherpowerful states.In the nuclear age the relative size and strength of nuclear arse-nals became a central feature of military capabilities, power and influence ininternational politics.During the Cold War American nuclear weapons policywas explained as a necessary response to the imperatives of an internationalanarchic system in which it had to constantly seek a favourable nuclear balanceof power to counter the Soviet Union and avoid the political coercion that wouldsurely result from an inferior nuclear force.Game theory was used to develophypotheses about the military-political interaction between America and theSoviet Union in Cold War crises. Strategic realists developed models ofnuclear deterrence based on the rationalist logic of game theory to explain andinform American nuclear weapons policy and strategy.4 Traditional accounts ofnuclear weapons policy have therefore focused on material military capabilitiesand the relative balance of these capabilities between major powers.They havegenerally defined theories of nuclear deterrence as logical and rational and usedthese to explain and guide policy.This analysis takes a different approach [ Pobierz caÅ‚ość w formacie PDF ]
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.The START arms control process is linked to missile defence and the threatfrom WMD-armed rogue states, the ABM treaty, modernisation and consolida-tion of nuclear forces, Russian suspicion of American missile defence and stra-tegic superiority motives.New or modified nuclear weapons are linked to WMD-armed rogue states,nuclear weapons expertise, nuclear testing, counter-proliferation war-fightingdoctrine, a capabilities-based approach to deterrence by denial, and nuclear non-proliferation.Dependency on nuclear weapons in strategic planning is linked to conven-tional strategic capabilities, missile defences, the blocked START process,modernisation of nuclear forces, a shift to deterrence by denial vis-à-vis roguestates, and the state of the nuclear weapons production complex.The consolidation of nuclear forces is linked to strategic force modernisation,new targeting infrastructure, new or modified nuclear weapons, missiledefences, conventional strategic capabilities, and the START process, PNIs andMoscow Treaty.Finally, revitalising the nuclear weapons production complex is linked tonuclear weapons expertise, nuclear testing, new nuclear weapons, a nuclearhedge and modernisation of nuclear forces.This chapter has identified and examined a number of trends that emergefrom the analysis of nuclear weapons policy in the previous three chapters.Itargues that the key decisions and trends identified and examined represent theevolution of nuclear weapons policy since the end of the Cold War.A number ofcompeting ideas, beliefs, meanings and understandings emerge from analysis ofthese decisions, trends and the debates.The next chapter examines the substanceof these competing ideas and their effect on the evolution of nuclear weaponspolicy. 7 The influence of ideas on nuclearweapons policyAnalysis of nuclear weapons policy tends to draw on realist theory in whichnational security and survival are the first and foremost concern of all states inan international system of relentless security competition.1 States constantlystruggle for power because with it comes influence and a greater capacity toensure national security and state survival in an uncertain and anarchic inter-national environment.The struggle for power and security inevitably results inconflictual relations and power is generally defined in terms of the material,particularly military, capabilities of a state relative to the capabilities of otherstates and the political power to coerce and control other states.2 It is thereforeconsidered logical and rational for states to maximise their military and politicalpower vis-à-vis their competitors because it is in their national interest to do soif they want to survive.Failure to act rationally in an anarchic internationalsystem could undermine the very survival of the state.3Realist theory, with its focus on states, material capabilities and securitydefined in military terms, therefore explains and in fact prescribes the accumula-tion of military power as a necessary and rational activity to protect the statefrom the many, varied and inevitable confrontations it will have with otherpowerful states.In the nuclear age the relative size and strength of nuclear arse-nals became a central feature of military capabilities, power and influence ininternational politics.During the Cold War American nuclear weapons policywas explained as a necessary response to the imperatives of an internationalanarchic system in which it had to constantly seek a favourable nuclear balanceof power to counter the Soviet Union and avoid the political coercion that wouldsurely result from an inferior nuclear force.Game theory was used to develophypotheses about the military-political interaction between America and theSoviet Union in Cold War crises. Strategic realists developed models ofnuclear deterrence based on the rationalist logic of game theory to explain andinform American nuclear weapons policy and strategy.4 Traditional accounts ofnuclear weapons policy have therefore focused on material military capabilitiesand the relative balance of these capabilities between major powers.They havegenerally defined theories of nuclear deterrence as logical and rational and usedthese to explain and guide policy.This analysis takes a different approach [ Pobierz caÅ‚ość w formacie PDF ]