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.While I was living in Britain from 1958 to1962, the British people were coming to terms with the outdatedness ofcherished long-held values based on Britain's former role as the world'sdominant political, economic, and naval power.The French, Germans, andother European countries have advanced even further in subordinating tothe European Union their national sovereignties for which they used tofight so dearly.All of these past and recent reappraisals of values that I have just men-tioned were achieved despite being agonizingly difficult.Hence they alsocontribute to my hope.They may inspire modern First World citizens withthe courage to make the most fundamental reappraisal now facing us: howmuch of our traditional consumer values and First World living standardcan we afford to retain? I already mentioned the seeming political impossi-bility of inducing First World citizens to lower their impact on the world.But the alternative, of continuing our current impact, is more impossible.This dilemma reminds me of Winston Churchill's response to criticisms ofdemocracy: "It has been said that Democracy is the worst form of govern-ment except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time."In that spirit, a lower-impact society is the most impossible scenario for ourfuture except for all other conceivable scenarios.Actually, while it won't be easier to reduce our impact, it won't be im-possible either.Remember that impact is the product of two factors: popu-lation, multiplied times impact per person.As for the first of those twofactors, population growth has recently declined drastically in all FirstWorld countries, and in many Third World countries as well includingChina, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, with the world's largest, fourth largest,and ninth largest populations respectively.Intrinsic population growth in Japan and Italy is already below the replacement rate, such that their exist-ing populations (i.e., not counting immigrants) will soon begin shrinking.As for impact per person, the world would not even have to decrease its cur-rent consumption rates of timber products or of seafood: those rates couldbe sustained or even increased, if the world's forests and fisheries wereproperly managed.My remaining cause for hope is another consequence of the globalizedmodern world's interconnectedness.Past societies lacked archaeologists andtelevision.While the Easter Islanders were busy deforesting the highlands oftheir overpopulated island for agricultural plantations in the 1400s, theyhad no way of knowing that, thousands of miles to the east and west at thesame time, Greenland Norse society and the Khmer Empire were simulta-neously in terminal decline, while the Anasazi had collapsed a few centuriesearlier, Classic Maya society a few more centuries before that, and Myce-nean Greece 2,000 years before that.Today, though, we turn on our tele-vision sets or radios or pick up our newspapers, and we see, hear, or readabout what happened in Somalia or Afghanistan a few hours earlier.Ourtelevision documentaries and books show us in graphic detail why theEaster Islanders, Classic Maya, and other past societies collapsed.Thus, wehave the opportunity to learn from the mistakes of distant peoples and pastpeoples.That's an opportunity that no past society enjoyed to such a de-gree.My hope in writing this book has been that enough people will chooseto profit from that opportunity to make a difference. ACKNOWLEDGMENTSI acknowledge with gratitude the big debts that I owe to many people fortheir contributions to this book.With these friends and colleagues, I sharedthe pleasure and excitement of exploring the ideas presented here.A special badge of heroism was earned by six friends who read and cri-tiqued the entire manuscript: Julio Betancourt, Stewart Brand, my wifeMarie Cohen, Paul Ehrlich, Alan Grinnell, and Charles Redman.That samebadge of heroism, and more, are due to my editors Wendy Wolf at PenguinGroup (New York) and Stefan McGrath and Jon Turney at Viking Penguin(London), and to my agents John Brockman and Katinka Matson, who be-sides reading the whole manuscript helped in myriad ways to shape thisbook from its initial conception through all stages of production.GretchenDaily, Larry Linden, Ivan Barkhorn, and Bob Waterman similarly read andcritiqued the concluding chapters on the modern world.Michelle Fisher-Casey typed the whole manuscript, many times.Bo-ratha Yeang tracked down books and articles, Ruth Mandel tracked downphotographs, and Jeffrey Ward prepared the maps.I presented much of the material of this book to two successive classes ofundergraduates at the University of California at Los Angeles, where I teachin the Geography Department.I also offered a mini-course as a visitor to agraduate seminar in the Department of Anthropological Sciences at Stan-ford University.As willing guinea pigs, those students and colleagues con-tributed fresh and stimulating outlooks.Earlier versions of some material of seven chapters appeared as articlesin Discover magazine, the New York Review of Books, Harper's magazine, andNature.In particular, Chapter 12 (on China) is an expanded version of ajoint article that Jianguo (Jack) Liu and I wrote, that Jack drafted, and forwhich he gathered the information.I also thank other friends and other colleagues in connection with eachchapter.They variously arranged my visits to countries where they lived orconducted research, guided me in the field, patiently shared their experi-ence with me, sent me articles and references, critiqued my chapter draft, ordid several or all of these things.They generously gave me many days orweeks of their time.My debt to them is enormous.They include the follow-ing people, listed by chapter: Chapter 1.Allen Bjergo, Marshall and Tonia and Seth Bloom, DianeBoyd, John and Pat Cook, John Day, Gary Decker, John and Jill Eliel, EmilErhardt, Stan Falkow, Bruce Farling, Roxa French, Hank Goetz, Pam Gouse,Roy Grant, Josette Hackett, Dick and Jack Hirschy, Tim and Trudy Huls,Bob Jirsa, Rick and Frankie Laible, Jack Losensky, Land Lindbergh, JoyceMcDowell, Chris Miller, Chip Pigman, Harry Poett, Steve Powell, Jack WardThomas, Lucy Tompkins, Pat Vaughn, Marilyn Wildee, and Vern and MariaWoolsey.Chapter 2 [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]
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.While I was living in Britain from 1958 to1962, the British people were coming to terms with the outdatedness ofcherished long-held values based on Britain's former role as the world'sdominant political, economic, and naval power.The French, Germans, andother European countries have advanced even further in subordinating tothe European Union their national sovereignties for which they used tofight so dearly.All of these past and recent reappraisals of values that I have just men-tioned were achieved despite being agonizingly difficult.Hence they alsocontribute to my hope.They may inspire modern First World citizens withthe courage to make the most fundamental reappraisal now facing us: howmuch of our traditional consumer values and First World living standardcan we afford to retain? I already mentioned the seeming political impossi-bility of inducing First World citizens to lower their impact on the world.But the alternative, of continuing our current impact, is more impossible.This dilemma reminds me of Winston Churchill's response to criticisms ofdemocracy: "It has been said that Democracy is the worst form of govern-ment except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time."In that spirit, a lower-impact society is the most impossible scenario for ourfuture except for all other conceivable scenarios.Actually, while it won't be easier to reduce our impact, it won't be im-possible either.Remember that impact is the product of two factors: popu-lation, multiplied times impact per person.As for the first of those twofactors, population growth has recently declined drastically in all FirstWorld countries, and in many Third World countries as well includingChina, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, with the world's largest, fourth largest,and ninth largest populations respectively.Intrinsic population growth in Japan and Italy is already below the replacement rate, such that their exist-ing populations (i.e., not counting immigrants) will soon begin shrinking.As for impact per person, the world would not even have to decrease its cur-rent consumption rates of timber products or of seafood: those rates couldbe sustained or even increased, if the world's forests and fisheries wereproperly managed.My remaining cause for hope is another consequence of the globalizedmodern world's interconnectedness.Past societies lacked archaeologists andtelevision.While the Easter Islanders were busy deforesting the highlands oftheir overpopulated island for agricultural plantations in the 1400s, theyhad no way of knowing that, thousands of miles to the east and west at thesame time, Greenland Norse society and the Khmer Empire were simulta-neously in terminal decline, while the Anasazi had collapsed a few centuriesearlier, Classic Maya society a few more centuries before that, and Myce-nean Greece 2,000 years before that.Today, though, we turn on our tele-vision sets or radios or pick up our newspapers, and we see, hear, or readabout what happened in Somalia or Afghanistan a few hours earlier.Ourtelevision documentaries and books show us in graphic detail why theEaster Islanders, Classic Maya, and other past societies collapsed.Thus, wehave the opportunity to learn from the mistakes of distant peoples and pastpeoples.That's an opportunity that no past society enjoyed to such a de-gree.My hope in writing this book has been that enough people will chooseto profit from that opportunity to make a difference. ACKNOWLEDGMENTSI acknowledge with gratitude the big debts that I owe to many people fortheir contributions to this book.With these friends and colleagues, I sharedthe pleasure and excitement of exploring the ideas presented here.A special badge of heroism was earned by six friends who read and cri-tiqued the entire manuscript: Julio Betancourt, Stewart Brand, my wifeMarie Cohen, Paul Ehrlich, Alan Grinnell, and Charles Redman.That samebadge of heroism, and more, are due to my editors Wendy Wolf at PenguinGroup (New York) and Stefan McGrath and Jon Turney at Viking Penguin(London), and to my agents John Brockman and Katinka Matson, who be-sides reading the whole manuscript helped in myriad ways to shape thisbook from its initial conception through all stages of production.GretchenDaily, Larry Linden, Ivan Barkhorn, and Bob Waterman similarly read andcritiqued the concluding chapters on the modern world.Michelle Fisher-Casey typed the whole manuscript, many times.Bo-ratha Yeang tracked down books and articles, Ruth Mandel tracked downphotographs, and Jeffrey Ward prepared the maps.I presented much of the material of this book to two successive classes ofundergraduates at the University of California at Los Angeles, where I teachin the Geography Department.I also offered a mini-course as a visitor to agraduate seminar in the Department of Anthropological Sciences at Stan-ford University.As willing guinea pigs, those students and colleagues con-tributed fresh and stimulating outlooks.Earlier versions of some material of seven chapters appeared as articlesin Discover magazine, the New York Review of Books, Harper's magazine, andNature.In particular, Chapter 12 (on China) is an expanded version of ajoint article that Jianguo (Jack) Liu and I wrote, that Jack drafted, and forwhich he gathered the information.I also thank other friends and other colleagues in connection with eachchapter.They variously arranged my visits to countries where they lived orconducted research, guided me in the field, patiently shared their experi-ence with me, sent me articles and references, critiqued my chapter draft, ordid several or all of these things.They generously gave me many days orweeks of their time.My debt to them is enormous.They include the follow-ing people, listed by chapter: Chapter 1.Allen Bjergo, Marshall and Tonia and Seth Bloom, DianeBoyd, John and Pat Cook, John Day, Gary Decker, John and Jill Eliel, EmilErhardt, Stan Falkow, Bruce Farling, Roxa French, Hank Goetz, Pam Gouse,Roy Grant, Josette Hackett, Dick and Jack Hirschy, Tim and Trudy Huls,Bob Jirsa, Rick and Frankie Laible, Jack Losensky, Land Lindbergh, JoyceMcDowell, Chris Miller, Chip Pigman, Harry Poett, Steve Powell, Jack WardThomas, Lucy Tompkins, Pat Vaughn, Marilyn Wildee, and Vern and MariaWoolsey.Chapter 2 [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]